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Orientaton of policy of macroscopical adjusting control takes force central issu
From;  Author:Stand originally
After afterwards Zhou Er drops, zhou Sanhu late market walked out of the concussion of stronger strength to drop again, we think this and conference of analysis of central economic situation are about to hold, whether is the market loosened to job of economy of second half of the year and macroscopical policy hold wait-and-see attitude to concern.
17 will be announced first half of the year a series of economy data, compare economic data nevertheless announce, of orientaton of policy of macroscopical adjusting control Anacreontic go to the market force may be more main. Analysis of central economic situation can be in Yu Benzhou Beijing to hold, trend of can macroscopical to second half of the year policy makes meeting admiral judgement, predict about fighting a fireworks that go up or maintains growth here second conference admiral can have a final verdict currently. And policy of macroscopical adjusting control is true if expect kind of meeting,have local loosen it is important to will walk along power generation to stock market future influence.
We think, the Central Bank announces the basis 14 days June financial data, m1 drops considerably, the key that is macroscopical adjusting control from prevent inflation to change direction protected growth to create a condition. But still be in perch as a result of inflationary level, rebound to prevent inflation, from tight monetary policy may not can begin loosen now. On the whole, after constrictive policy may want the Olympic Games or four quarters just can be loosened.   
But M1 be issued to lower levels is too fast, to economy growth and battalion of already of look forward to will cause adverse effect. Imply of M1 be issued to lower levels writes the current deposit of the enterprise to decrease, time deposit increases. This explains the management activity of the enterprise decreases, business has contractive tendency. Additional, m2 expands with what M1 differs, imply writes monetary liquidity abate, this also is the important sign of economic activity atrophy and systole of battalion of already of look forward to.
Before because this is in,monetary policy is loosened, policy may be adjusted first related exit, the finance policy that attachs most importance to a dot with rebuilding after calamity will be in the action that ensures play of economic growth respect is bigger. Look from a series of evidence of the near future, for example Zhejiang province begins small finance company is pilot in order to alleviate the loan problem of medium and small businesses, suggest like Department of Commerce RMB of proper rein in appreciates again pace raises spin, dress, toy, shoe kind etc labor is concentrated model the talk that industry exit drawback leads, these show grand mix policy is local adjustment possibility is larger still, this also suits with the overall situation appearance that stability maintains during the Olympic Games actually, this will be formed possibly to the market prop up certainly.
We think, between control inflation and economic growth, the country can search a balance to nod certainly, and after this equilibrium point is found, chinese economy achieves the success soft landing. Below soft landing scene, the reasonable and fluctuant interval of Chinese stock market also will be found. We insist to think of the market advocate drop level has gone, although the period of time that go is possible still generation beyond drops, but had produced investment opportunity.
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