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Mechanical industry: Four quarters send tall steel price to receive low demand

来源: 作者:Stand originally 时间:1999-12-31 Tag: 点击:
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Weak city prices is mechanical board piece run lose the market. 3 quarters are mechanical board piece drop 31.46% , drop a prep above market is average level, among them machine of the shipbuilding of strong cycle, project drops a house before.

Macroscopical environment has 4 quarters hard improve. The industrial production of 7-8 month and investment data all are shown glide trend, especially estate investment is added fast glide faster, the macroscopical environment that predicts industry of 4 quarters machinery is faced with has hard improve.

Impact of active finance policy is local. Entrance component drawback turns the equipment demand that national capital gold handles transition of difficult; value added tax to bring controls; basis in 33 billion yuan about before experience, vigorous finance policy changes the moving trend of mechanical industry very hard, more the substantial that looks anteroom real estate invests to already occupied domestic fixed assets to invest what is more,the rather that.

Trade demand adds 4 quarters machine fast or will glide quickly. Integrated afore-mentioned elements, we think industry of 4 quarters machinery may be faced with demand to add fast the circumstance that glides quickly, it may be said sends Gao Gang price, receive low demand.

Railroad, be defeated change report and growth of solar energy equipment are affirmatory. Child in the industry, railroad equipment, be defeated change electric equipment and solar energy generate electricity equipment future growth is affirmatory, and machine tool tool and project machine, heavy mine machinery will still continue boom is ordinal the trend of fall after a rise.

Put in the risk:

Credit policy is loosened suddenly apparently. If domestic Central Bank stems from the consideration that defends economy and financial safety, loosen credit suddenly considerably, criterion domestic investment and mechanical equipment demand will be good at anticipating.

Comprehensive assessment and grade are adjusted

Grade of mechanical industry neutral. In cycle of economic be issued to lower levels, mechanical industry boom also be issued to lower levels, keep neuter grade. Child electric equipment is maintained to add in the industry although demand growth is clear,manage facility of grade; railroad, but bibcock company estimate is worth on the high side, give machinery of tool of machine of project of neuter grade; , machine tool and heavy mine to maintain neuter grade. Recommend Tian Wei to protect change, smooth tall Kunming machine tool and east are electric, electric, but also submit to at the same time investor notes avoid system risk.

One, 3 quarters are mechanical 2008 board piece continue to lose

From June 15, 2008 - during September 12, 2008 (similarly hereinafter) , increase advantageous position by current market prise average calculative Shanghai is deep 300 indexes drop 28.33% , machinery board piece drop 31.46% , drop a prep above market is average level, we are in industry neutral grade was kept in strategy of second half of the year 2008, look now level sex is judicious.

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